Duna House estimate of monthly volumes of residential real estate transactions and mortgages 2021.11.05.

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Estimation of the volume of residential real estate transactions and mortgage forecasts for

October 2021

Duna House presents below its monthly estimate of the number of transactions (DH-TE) and its mortgage forecast, showing that as of October 2021, 11,526 real estate transactions were concluded and residential mortgage contracts worth 107 billion HUF were signed across Hungary.

The early fall recovery was followed by a slight decline in the housing market in October. According to Duna House estimates, 11,526 deals were closed in October 2021, which could be behind the same periods in previous years, but still speaks of a 3% increase over the summer months of This year. Since the start of the year, the increase has been 17% compared to 2020 and about the same as in 2019, the last year before the Covid19 pandemic. Assuming market activity continues at the same levels, Duna House expects a total annual transaction volume of over 150,000 for 2021.

That said, residential mortgage volume has fallen back to levels last seen in May of this year. Mortgage contracts worth HUF 107 billion were signed in October, according to estimates published by Duna House Finance. Although this is slightly lower than the record numbers of recent months, he still forecasts total volume 31% higher than the same period last year. It also means that the market has continued to exceed the limit of HUF 100 billion each month since March and could break new records by the end of 2021, supported by the backlash of market opportunities offered by new green loans.

Budapest, November 2, 2021

Background information

The table below shows Duna House’s monthly trading volume estimates.

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

2018

10 918

12,869

13,426

13,180

13 967

13,098

14,246

13,869

12 787

12 689

12,033

9 721

2019

10,741

13,532

14 373

14 166

13,512

11 069

12 764

11 945

13 364

13,182

10 945

10,127

2020

9917

13,117

11,100

5971

8400

11 186

13 125

11 923

12,708

12,200

11 369

10 354

2021

11 185

14 569

15,630

13,511

14,198

13 615

11 185

11,304

11,807

11 526

Methodology behind DH-TE: Regardless of the time of year, the most important indicator of the real estate market is the annual number of sales transactions. DH-TE figure is an estimate published by Duna House and reflects provisional approximate data. The estimate is based on the number of monthly real estate transactions negotiated by Duna House and the estimated market share of Duna House. The estimate of the current monthly market share of Duna House is based on the following indicators: 1. Data published by the Hungarian Central Office for Statistics on transactions between individuals. Since the Statistical Office publishes the data several months late, the market share can be adjusted retroactively, which also allows a more precise estimate. Note: After 2016 and following the boom in new apartments, pre-contracted purchase transactions appear in the statistics of the Statistical Office with a delay of several months or even one or two years, after the transfer tax has been taken, which causes anomalies in the statistics. 2. The number of energy certificates issued; 3. Subjective assessment based on other management information from Duna House Holding.

Please also note that DH-TE data cannot be used to define the volume of transactions traded by Duna House, or to estimate the trading profit of Duna House Holding or to draw related conclusions.

Mortgage Forecasts: Figures released by Duna House Loan Center can primarily be used for quick trend forecasts; the National Bank of Hungary publishes the actual figures for the penultimate month at the beginning of each month.

Disclaimer

House Duna holding Nyrt. published this content on 05 November 2021 and is solely responsible for the information it contains. Distributed by Public, unedited and unmodified, on 05 November 2021 13:47:01 UTC.

Public now 2021

All news on DUNA HOUSE HOLDING NYRT.
Sales 2021 12 850 M
41.2 million
41.2 million
Net income 2021

Net debt 2021

PER 2021 ratio
Yield 2021 4.04%
Capitalization 15,909 million
51.0 million
51.0 million
Capi. / Sales 2021 1.24x
Capi. / Sales 2022 1.11x
Number of employees 1,400
Free float 14.4%

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Average consensus TO BUY
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HUF470.00

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Spread / Average target 14.9%


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